A review paper to examine the validity of Bayesian network to build rational consensus in subjective probabilistic failure analysis

摘要

In recent decades the dependency of a society on the industrial sector has been widely increased, leading to the rapid occurrence of high number of industrial accidents. Thus, it is important to be ensured that the operations of their complex systems and commonly hazardous components are still safe working. The probabilistic failure analysis is commonly engaged to improve the safety performance of the system using varieties of methods including fault tree analysis, bow-tie analysis, or block diagram analysis. Such mentioned methods in some cases can be applied with consideration of multi-expert judgment which brings high subjectivity its inside. The current work is aimed at performing a subjective probabilistic failure analysis by considering rational consensus in the industrial sector. Therefore, Bayesian network method is utilized in this regards and accordingly the validation of this technique is evaluated based on the literature and real industrial case study.