Strait/canal security assessment of the Maritime Silk Road

摘要

This study investigates the security of the strait/canal on the Maritime Silk Road, using quantitative indicators, including width, depth, piracy and terrorism attacks, among other factors. The paper applies the experts grading method, which considers the risks estimated by experts for determining the weights of indicators. Due to different knowledge backgrounds, practical experiences and perspectives, the weight parameters given by different experts are always inconsistent, and the risk determined by each expert is different. This study measures the risk estimated by each expert by quantifying the deviation of the expert's estimated risk from the weight matrix of the group decision. The results suggest that the indicators have an important impact on strait/canal security, including ship accidents, piracy attacks, reefs, terrorism, military conflict, typhoons, width and depth. Comparatively, in this study, the security of the Suez Canal is found to be the best, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait has poor security.