Statistical investigation on train primary delay based on real records: evidence from Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR

摘要

The focus of this study was to conduct statistical analysis on primary delays in Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway (HSR). The main statistics of primary delays were investigated, including delay causes, delay frequencies, delays' temporal and spatial occurrences, affected number of trains, and delay recovery patterns. Models that can illustrate the primary delays duration and the number of affected trains were developed. Namely, the log-normal and the Weibull distributions are tested, and the results affirm that the former one can better approximate the duration of primary delays. Subsequently, a non-linear regression model to fit the distribution of the affected number of trains was presented. The temporal and spatial analysis of primary delays and capacity utilization show that there is a high degree of dependency between the periods with high delay frequency and capacity bottlenecks. Specifically, wherever there is a high capacity utilization rate, there is a high probability of delay occurrence. This study provides insightful findings that help in understanding the primary delays in HSR operation and conducting further research.