Forecasting international technology transfer and international trade in Nigeria: a time series analysis

摘要

The objective of this study was to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships among the international factors and domestic investment, as well as, to assess the short-term impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, domestic investment and economic growth on international technology transfer to Nigeria from 1970 to 2010. A multivariate cointegration technique developed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) was employed to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships. The results of the analysis affirmed the existence of cointegrating vectors in the systems of this country, during the study period (Lee and Tan, 2006). The short-term impact of inward FDI, trade and domestic investment on international technology transfer to Nigeria was also tested via Granger causality test, based on vector error-correction model. The results of the test revealed a short-run causal effect either running unidirectionally or bidirectionally among the variables for the country. Finally, all the variables in the Nigerian systems were adjusting to equilibrium in the long run, with the exception of domestic investment (DI), which failed to do the adjustment in the long run. Policy implications were highlighted at the end of this report.