The differential dynamical model of the number of the private car ownership in China

摘要

With the rapid economic growth and improvement of living standards, private car have entered the home of ordinary people as durable goods. Consequently in this research we concentrate on developing and analyzing a competition model for the number of private car ownership in China. With the theory of differential dynamical system, this model shows the number of the private car ownership will trend to a few fixed data. At the same time, an empirical analysis has also been given with the history data. The parameters of the model have been estimated on the base of the historical data and numerical simulation has been carried out to show the diffusion process for private car in China. This model is more efficient to match the historical data and will have fewer consumers in the market potential of private car in China compared with the Blackman/Fishcr-Pry model.