When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment

摘要

This paper analyzes the predictive content of the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve for U.S. real activity in a data-rich environment. We find that, while the slope contains predictive power, the level and curvature are not successful leading indicators. The predictive power of each of the yield curve factors fluctuates over time. The results show that economic conditions matter for the predictive ability of the slope. In particular, inflation persistence emerges as a key variable that affects the predictive content of the slope. The slope tends to forecast the output growth better when inflation is highly persistent. (C) 2017 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.