Interval prediction of annual maximum demand using grey dynamic model

摘要

This paper proposes an interval prediction of the upper and lower bound values of load demand using the grey dynamic model in grey system theory. Supply and demand in power system planning and operation are required to be balanced. A marginal supply capability against accidental demands or faults is also required. The confidence interval can become an index for determining the marginal supply capability. The interval prediction using the grey dynamic model is illustrated using an example. The results are compared with the actual demands and with those obtained from a linear single regression model.