Dutch disease and Russia

摘要

We attempted to investigate empirically whether or not the Dutch disease (de-industrialization) exists in Russia. This study led to the following main findings: (i) manufacturing output in Russia is positively associated with the price of oil, though the response following an oil-price shock is marginal in the short run; (ii) manufacturing output rises slightly even in case of the appreciation of real effective exchange rate; (hi) FDI inflows contribute to the growth of manufacturing output, but not significant; (iv) an increase in government expenditures crowds out the manufacturing sector; and (v) the government has a tight fiscal policy in response to a rise in manufacturing output.