How the COVID-19 Pandemic Is Reshaping the Trade Landscape and What to Do About It

摘要

On 8 April 2020, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released its forecast for world trade in 2020, announcing that it expected a fall in volume of between 13% and 32%. Both the magnitude of the fall and the width of the forecasting range speak volumes about the violent blow the crisis dealt to international trade and about the uncertainty surrounding ensuing consequences. They reflect the deeply disruptive economic impacts of lockdown measures taken to counter the pandemic. Since these measures should be short-lived, part of their impact is temporary, and it is reasonable to expect that their removal will bring significant economic relief. Yet, I argue that this crisis will create lasting changes in the trade landscape and serious threats to the rules-based trading system, warranting a reconsideration of trade policy priorities in important respects.