Tradecraft, the PIAB, and the 2007 NIE on Iran's Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

摘要

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence's Office of Analytic Integrity and Standards (AIS) conducted a rigorous evaluation of the tradecraft underlying the 2008 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. AIS's director and senior officials from several IC elements briefed the President's Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB) on the findings in order to demonstrate that the NIE manifested the Intelligence Community's (IC's) improved tradecraft capabilities. The PIAB's response, however, was to criticize NIE's substance and hence minimize the salience of its superior tradecraft. The result was a missed opportunity to bolster the IC's reputation.