RISK ASSESSMENT AND DECISION ANALYSIS WITH BAYESIAN NETWORKS

摘要

Bayesian statistics is hot right now. Recently, members of two review panels have recommended that I and my colleagues use Bayesian statistics. They did not indicate how it should be used or how it would improve things. One reviewer said that he did not understand it, but we should use it because people at his university use it and think it is great. Two recent popular books, Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahnman and The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, have presented Bayesianism as the epitome of rationality. Is it time to jump on the bandwagon?