AVOIDING 'PROOFINESS': ADDRESSING UNCERTAINTY IN ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERIZATION

摘要

Seife (2010) writes in "Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception" that everyone can be "ensnared into transparent falsehoods" when mathematics are added to the narrative. Adding math (or science) to most anything makes it more believable. In this Learned Discourse, we discuss what happens when scientists forget their training and become ensnared in "transparent falsehoods." Take the case of addressing uncertainties in environmental characterization. Specifically, we tackle the question of how certain we are about knowing what the contaminant concentrations are across space and time and address the problem of inappropriate use of and overreliance on monitoring data to estimate contaminant concentrations in environmental characterizations.