As The Final Calendar quarter of 1998 begins, the U.S. and the other major players in the global economy are experiencing relatively slow growth, nearly no growth, or recession. "Rosy scenario," the popular name among economists for their optimistic and sometimes self-fulfilling prophecies, has been conspicuously absent from regent forecasts. Indeed, the probability of a miraculous economic recovery during the next 12 months—spurred by lower interest rates in Asia, tax cuts in Japan, and financial and corporate restructuring throughout Asia—is a mere 10%, ventures the global economic research team at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc., New York.
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