マイクロシミュレーションを用いた利用者の視点による列車ダイヤ評価手法

摘要

In order to evaluate train timetables from passengers' points of view, it is indispensable to estimate the disutilities of passengers. This can be done by estimating the movements of passengers and trains accurately. In particular, when there are many passengers, an interaction between the passengers and trains must be considered. To this end, we have developed a microsimulation system to simulate both train operation and passengers' train choice behavior. The system can simulate train choice behaviors of more than one million passengers as well as their positions in trains. It is possible to estimate the delays caused by congestion in trains as well. The system is based on models of different attitudes of the passengers with respect to the train choice behavior, with includes the choice of the earliest train, transfer avoidance, and congestion avoidance; a passengers' train choice behavior reflects his/her preferences. We applied this system to an actual railway line in a metropolitan area and evaluated two train schedules by calculating the generalized cost that reflects each passenger's disutility in his/her experience. Through the numerical experiments, we have confirmed that the proposed method is very useful for evaluating timetables from passengers' points of view.%近年，鉄道会社では，高品質の輸送サービスを提供し，自rn動車や航空機など他の輸送機関との厳しい競争を制するたrnめに，列車ダイヤの定量的な評価が求められている。rn列車ダイヤの評価指標にはこれまで，列車キロや車両キrnロなど，輸送サービスを線区全体の観点から評価する指標rnが用いられてきた。これらの指標は，事業者が運行に必rn要な車両，乗務員数などをきわめて容易に算出できるといrnうメリットがある一方，あまりにも雑駁で，利用者の満足rn度を推定したり，ダイヤ改善のための指針を得たりするこrnとは不可能である。