確率的需要シナリオを考慮した発電計画の最適化手法

摘要

1．はじめに電力会社の中央給電指令所システム（中給システム）においては，電力供給の高い信頼性を維持しつつ発電コストを適切に保つための系統監視制御が行われているが，このためには発電所の運用計画を事前に適切に策定することが重要である。発電所の運用計画は，発電機の起動停止問題と経済負荷配分問題からなり，前者はどの発電機をいかなるタイミングで起動停止するか（発電機体制）を決定し，後者は燃料コストが最小になるような発電機の出力配分を決定する。%We have developed a new method to determine an optimal generator scheduling using probabilistic demand scenarios. The demand scenarios are created statistically as a set of load curves by the past demand data. Covariance matrix is used to reconstruct the distribution of the demand scenarios. Unit commitment calculation is executed for each demand scenario and the operation cost is estimated. Optimal generator scheduling is selected by the expected value of the unit price with including the additional cost to compensate the demand variation. The risk of the scenarios is also estimated to select the optimal generation scenario. The advantage of this method is that the optimum generator scheduling can be calculated in the present load dispatching system since the existing scheduling algorism can be easily adopted with a minimum modification.