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Decisionmaking under uncertainty with various assumptions about available information

机译:不确定性下的决策,关于可用信息的各种假设

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This correspondence surveys six different methodologies for choosing one of a fixed number of alternative actions, when it is uncertain which one of a fixed number of possible states of the world actually holds, and the outcome of each alternative action depends on the state of the world. The six approaches are different from each another primarily in their assumptions about the quality and quantity of information that is available regarding a) the relative possibility or likelihood of the various states of the world, and b) the relative utility of the various outcomes defined by (action, state) pairs. In Section I the methodologies are discussed in general terms, beginning with the more familiar ones such as statistical decision analysis, which assumes an information-rich environment, and proceeding to progressively newer techniques designed to operate on a leaner diet of information. In Section II the six approaches are illustrated using a single example. The order of presentation is reversed, beginning with an information-poor specification of the problem, then adding information to the problem in small increments to allow the use of each of the six techniques in succession. Finally, in Section III the prospects for an integrated approach to decision support that is sensitive to the quality and quantity of information are discussed, and some fruitful areas for further research, are presented.
机译:当不确定世界上固定数量的可能状态中的哪一个真正持有时,每种替代行为的结果取决于世界的状态,该信函调查了六种不同的方法来选择固定数量的替代行为之一。 。六种方法彼此的不同之处主要在于,它们对以下方面的可用信息的质量和数量的假设有关:a)世界各州的相对可能性或可​​能性,以及b)定义的各种结果的相对效用(动作,状态)对。在第一节中,我们从比较熟悉的方法入手,从比较熟悉的方法开始,例如统计决策分析,它假设一个信息丰富的环境,然后逐步发展为设计用于更精简的信息结构的新技术。在第二节中,使用一个示例说明了六种方法。表示的顺序颠倒了,从问题的信息贫乏的说明开始,然后以较小的增量向问题添加信息,以允许连续使用六种技术。最后,在第三节中,讨论了对信息的质量和数量敏感的综合决策支持方法的前景,并提出了一些有待进一步研究的富有成果的领域。

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