Impacts of acid deposition at Plastic Lake: forecasting chemical recovery using a Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation approach

摘要

Given the importance of models in the development of environmental polices it is necessary tonassess the uncertainty introduced by model parameterisation and its impact on predictions. In thencurrent study, an uncertainty framework designed to perform automated calibrations andndeveloped for use with the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) wasnapplied to Plastic Lake, a long-term study site in Southern Ontario, Canada. The primary objectivesnwere to investigate the chemical response of soil and surface water at Plastic Lake to proposed acidn(sulfur and nitrogen) emissions and assess the use of the framework at a regional level. Despite thenrelatively high amount of uncertainty associated with many of the model parameters, calibrationnresulted in relatively narrow parameter convergence. The importance of time-series stream datanwas clearly evident, with uncertainty decreasing with more observation years. The forecastnimprovements in stream Acid Neutralizing Capacity at Plastic Lake from–40meq/L in 1988 ton14meq/L in 2060 had 5 and 95% confidence bounds of–3 and 29meq/L, respectively. Despitenthe limited availability of soil chemical data in Ontario, the approach applied at Plastic Lakenis viable on a regional basis given the abundance of water chemistry data.