Exploratory analysis of statistical post-processing methods for hydrological ensemble forecasts

摘要

Despite many recent improvements, ensemble forecast systems for streamflow often produce under-dispersed predictive distributions. This situation is problematic for their operational use in water resources management. Many options exist for post-processing of raw forecasts. However, most of these have been developed using meteorological variables such as temperature, which displays characteristics very different from streamflow. In addition, streamflow data series are often very short or contain numerous gaps, thus compromising the estimation of post-processing statistical parameters. For operational use, a post-processing method has to be effective while remaining as simple as possible. We compared existing post-processing methods using normally distributed and gamma-distributed synthetic datasets. To reflect situations encountered with ensemble forecasts of daily streamflow, four normal distribution parameterizations and six gamma distribution parameterizations were used. Three kernel-based approaches were tested, namely, the best member' method and two improvements thereof, and one regression-based approach. Additional tests were performed to assess the ability of post-processing methods to cope with short calibration series, missing values or small numbers of ensemble members. We thus found that over-dispersion is best corrected by the regression method, while under-dispersion is best corrected by kernel-based methods. This work also shows key limitations associated with short data series, missing values, asymmetry and bias. One of the improved best member methods required longer series for the estimation of post-processing parameters, but if provided with adequate information, yielded the best improvement of the continuous ranked probability score. These results suggest guidelines for future studies involving real operational datasets. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.