Long-term change of seasonal snow cover and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim River basin, northwestern China

摘要

Spatio-temporal variation of snow depth in the Tarim River basin has been studied by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based on the data collected by special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) during the period from 1979 to 2005. The long-term trend of snow depth and runoff was presented using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, and the effects of the variations of snow depth and climatic factors on runoff were analysed and discussed by means of the regression analysis. The results suggested that the snow depth variation on the entire basin was characterised by four patterns: all consistency, north-south contrast, north-middle-south contrast and complex. The first pattern accounting 39.13% of the total variance was dominant. The entire basin was mainly affected by one large-scale weather system. However, the spatial and temporal differences also existed among the different regions in the basin. The significant snow depth changes occurred mainly in the Aksu River basin with the below-normal snow depth anomalies in the 1980s and the above-normal snow depth anomalies in the 1990s. The long-term trend of snow depth was significant in the northwestern, western and southern parts of the basin, whereas the long-term trend of runoff was significant in the northwestern and northeastern parts. The regression analysis revealed that the runoff of the rivers replenished by snow melt water and rainfall was related primarily to the summer precipitation, followed by the summer temperature or the maximum snow depth in the cold season. Our results suggest that snow is not the principal factor that contributes to the runoff increase in headstreams, although there was a slow increase in snow depth. It is the climatic factors that are responsible for the steady and continuous water increase in the headstreams.