A semi-analytical approach for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by embankment dam failures

摘要

This study presents an analytical solution of dam-break floods in a trapezoidal channel with detailed solution procedure. An approach predicting the peak discharge of floods caused by embankment dam failures was derived from the aforementioned analytical solution with a database of 27 historical dam failures. The prediction performance of this approach has been proved by comparing with other 14 straightforward equations for estimating the peak discharge. The proposed model with a small uncertainty of predicted peak flow rates has a high coefficient of determination and a small standard error, being ranked in the top four of the 15 methods considered in this paper. The robustness and predictive capability of the proposed model are further demonstrated in two case studies, and both were considered in the previous analyses performed by other investigators. This method provides a simple and transparent tool for engineers to predict the peak discharge and is easy to implement for trial and error calculation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.