An empirical probabilistic approach for constraining the uncertainty of long-term solute transport predictions in fractured rock using in situ tracer experiments

摘要

Although radionuclide tracer tests have been carried out for over 30 years, the role of tracer tests in radioactive waste repository performance assessment (PA) has been questioned due to the differences between the time scales for tracer tests and PA. The possibility of using in situ tracer tests to constrain PA time scale (over 10,000 years) solute transport has been demonstrated using a systematic “microstructural model” approach to define advective and retentive materials. A series of simulations were conducted of the “TRUE-1” sorbing solute transport experiments in a well-characterized block of fractured granite. These experiments were then used to constrain the uncertainty of long-term transport on the same pathways, using a gradient several orders of magnitude smaller. The comparison of uncertainty of this long-term transport, with and without this conditioning step, provided a measure of the ability of tracer tests to reduce PA time-scale uncertainty. Although this approach for quantifying uncertainty reduction is somewhat empirical, it does indicate the potential usefulness of tracer experiments in reducing the uncertainty of the key PA time-scale transport parameters such as the flow wetted surface, provided that immobile zone properties such as sorption (Kd), porosity and diffusivity are available.