Risk Assessment of Land-Falling Tropical Cyclones in Guangdong Province, China

摘要

First, this article provides how tropical cyones (TCs) have affected the Guang-dong Province of China. Second, this article describes the extent of damage in Guangdong. The analysis demonstrates that those areas of Guangdong most vul-nerable to TC-associated risks today are the same areas where TCs make frequent landfall. Then, we suggest a definition of TC risk. Employing the soft histogram method, we assess the risk of land-falling due to TCs in the province, where only small samples are available. Any risk assessment from the data must be imprecise. The advantage of this suggested model is that it can deal with fuzzy information carried by a small sample. Heavy rainfall and high wind are considered in assessing TC-associated risks. Three cases of TC-associated risks in the province are provided, including 50 mm × 17 m/s, 100 mm × 17 m/s, and 100 mm × 24 m/s. The result indicates that different cities in Guangdong are exposed to different degrees of risk, with the highest risk located along the western, central, and eastern coast.