Strategic Risk for Enterprises in Highly Unpredictable Environments: An Experimental Random Selection Model

摘要

The fundamental assumption of profit maximization in traditional economics has been widely doubted since 1941. Many scholars have argued that profit optimization is only a motivation that cannot be applied in the process analysis that involves un-certainty and/or dynamic factors. In this article, we use an experimental model to simulate random selection evolutionary processes for business entities in an uncertainty environment. This experimental model can not only help researchers intuitively observe the survival process in uncertainty environment, but also explain the rela-tionship between survival rate and strategic risk. Moreover, this article points out some defects made by empirical observation. The purpose of this research is not to provide a risk assessment tool, but to figure out the essence of strategic risk in evolutionary selection processes.