Fish Consumption, Mercury Intake, and the Associated Risks to the Kuwaiti Population

摘要

This analysis uses recent data on fish consumption among Kuwaitis and on levels of Hg in fish collected from fish markets in Kuwait to estimate the human health risks to the Kuwaiti population due to consumption offish containing Hg. Mercury is a known human neurotoxicant. Recent, somewhat controversial, evidence suggests that it also may play a role in cardiovascular disease. Our analysis indicates that roughly 5,000 IQ points are lost among the 30,000 Kuwaiti infants born each year and that approximately 15 fatal heart attacks each year among middle-aged and elderly Kuwaitis may be attributed to consumption of methyl Hg in fish. Approximate 90% confidence intervals are from 1,800 to 14,000 IQ points lost annually and from 0 to 72 fatal heart attacks each year. The confidence intervals for neurotoxicity are broad because of uncertainty about the slope of the dose-response and the existence of a threshold. The range of estimates for heart attacks includes zero because of residual uncertainty about the causality of observed associations between methyl Hg exposure and cardiovascular disease. These results do not imply that Kuwaitis should immediately reduce their consumption offish, but do suggest that a careful risk-risk tradeoff analysis may be warranted.