Grey system analysis in the field of medicine and health

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to predict hospital respiratory system infection rate by using the gray GM(1,1) model, and to provide theoretical basis for the prospective study on hospital respiratory system infection management. Design/methodology/approach - The annual respiratory system infection rate of a comprehensive third-class hospital in Yan'an is collected from 2011 to 2017. The GM(1,1) model is used for prediction, and mean absolute percentage error is used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the model. Findings - GM(1,1) statistical prediction model is established with good fitting degree and high reliability of extrapolation prediction. Originality/value - The GM(1,1) model can well predict the respiratory system infection rate of the hospital.