Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of earthquake scenarios in the moderate endangered Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

摘要

Although geophysical hazards like earthquakes can lead to tremendous losses, they are often neglected or not considered in risk analyses within an Alpine context. However, lately and especially in the framework of multi-risk analyses, earthquake risk studies are being increasingly implemented within an Alpine relation too. The presented study was conducted to quantitatively estimate potential consequences of earthquake events in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. The methodological study framework integrates the general risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. They are considered on a regional scale, accepting pragmatic approaches with simplified procedures and assumptions. Scenarios for different potential epicentres were calculated based on two different macroseismic hazard maps derived from punctual ground motion values of the building code and microzonation studies. The maps take into account the design event definitions of existing building code and a, thereupon based, simple and mono-causal Maximum Credible Earthquake assumption. Corresponding elements at risk and damage potentials were identified and potential losses were estimated under consideration of different vulnerability approaches. It can be shown that most scenarios based on the design event definition of the Austrian and European building codes, respectively have the potential of building and inventory losses solely of some hundred million up to approximately €4 billion. Additional, building and inventory losses of maximum credible events can lead to losses of more than €7 billion merely in connection with the primary earthquake event neglecting all other cascading effects.