A time to sell?

摘要

The stock market has been in a bull cycle since the October 2002 low. One of the most reliable cycles of all is the four-year cycle, also known as the presidential cycle. This cycle falls in the middle of a presidential term and gets its name from its close correlation to the economic and political actions of a president in general. Historically, in the first couple years of a presidential term, the president attempts to initiate his policies and in the last two years he pumps money into the economy to make things appear good for the election. The four-year cycle has a history of incredible accuracy, with some very significant bottoms such as 1974, 1982 and the recent bottom in 2002. This cycle is due to bottom in the fourth quarter of this year.