After several tough years, trend followers again are earning outsized returns. Is this just a prelude to a massive letdown, or will trend following enter another golden age? It is an argument that has been going on as long as there have been trend followers and as long as there have been drawdowns. Does trend following really work? Have markets changed, making trend following a less effective strategy to manage money? The answers invariably come back "yes" and "yes" and "so what?" Longterm trend following is the heart and soul of managed futures, started by such pioneers as John W. Henry, Keith Campbell and William Dunn. Since then hundreds of managers have followed, copying it, attempting to improve it and/or going in a different direction. But markets go through cycles and certain strategies perform better or worse in these various market cycles. Every time one of these tough periods occurs, people ask if trend following is dead. These questions are legitimate because markets do change.
展开▼
