FEBRUARY: MORE ACTIVE IN RECENT YEARS

摘要

February was known as a quiet month for many years. Yet, since 2009 when it set the monthly low from the 2008 financial crisis, it has been far more active. Not surprising, in the context of a six-year bull run, that has meant stronger activity and wider ranges compared to its long-term historic tendencies. From 1928 through 2015, February has had more up months than down months, though the average performance is slightly negative, -0.1%. Its down months were worse (-3.40%) compared to its up months (+2.90%). If the strength during the past six years leads to a near-term reversion to the mean, February 2016 might be more challenging for bulls than the last six years.