Approaches to disruptive change: The contribution of complexity science to futures studies

摘要

We set out to establish the place of Weak Signals at the conceptual intersection between the fields of futures and complexity studies as a qualitative counterpart to the so-called Early Warning Signals (of regime shift). After briefly presenting the scope of the Weak Signal concept and associated problems with positioning such a controversial construct against the complexity field, we investigate how theoretical and practical implications of studying qualitative changes in a complex system's state allow for particular classes of phenomena to announce impactful events in advance. Finally, we reflect on the prospective ways of augmenting the Weak Signals concept by fusing it with the notion of Early Warning Signals and the consequent opportunities provided by bridging the fields of complexity and futures studies.