Population ageing in Italy after the 2008 economic crisis: A demographic approach

摘要

Population ageing is a significant demographic change. The Italian population is one of the oldest in the world. Studies have demonstrated that the economic crisis, beginning in 2008, is related to demographic dynamics. We believe that this crisis has an impact on Italian population ageing. We show that effects of the current economic crisis on population ageing are already observable. We predict how the current economic crisis will affect population ageing in the future until 2026. We estimate the number of births and net migration entries that did not take place due to the economic crisis. We find that missing births and missing net migration entries attributed to the current economic crisis have already had and will have an effect on the speed of population ageing in Italy. The demographic effects of this short-term economic crisis will become even more visible in the future. The results can help institutions have an overview of the consequences of the worsening demographic dynamics on the population structure due to adverse economic conditions. This paper is an important warning about the consequences of unexpected shocks. Demographic scientists, as well as policymakers, should be very interested in our results.