Betting the House

摘要

House prices have been going up so fast for so long that it's hard to resist talking about a bubble. Last year a former Goldman Sachs banker, John Tal-bott, published The Coming Crash in the Housing Market (McGraw-Hill, $14.95); before that this magazine had its own dire warnings (FORBES, Sept. 3, 2001). But money manager Edgar Wachenheim III says not to worry about the stocks of home builders. They will remain flush with orders, even if.mortgages tick up another point. Wachenheim's Greenhaven Associates has $2.7 billion under management on behalf of not-for-profit endowments and wealthy individuals. The portfolio is 40% in home builders, a position amassed mostly in 1999. "Everyone focused on interest rates is focused on one pitch," he says. "We're looking at the whole ball game." Wachenheim, 66, says the housing market is going to keep growing regardless of what mortgage rates do. He shrugs at news that the average 30-year loan, now at 6.0%, is up almost three-quarters of a point since March, anticipating a Federal Reserve tightening. Any downdraft in new-home purchases will be temporary, he says. Apart from that, the biggest builders in a long-term growth phase are good buys based on their ability to capture business from small builders.