Uncertainty=Equity Opportunity

摘要

Wise investors realize that we're in one of those periods that characterize a bull market—an overdose of caution. In bull markets, contrary to myth, people are very aware of the negatives. They know the things that can go wrong, the problems that weigh us down—deficits, inflation, bubbles, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, incompetent government. Unbridled optimism doesn't manifest itself until near the end of a bull market Smart investors know this is the time to load up on equities—while they're relatively cheap. A considerable part of wealth is expectations. If a company's prospects look bright, it will obviously have a higher valuation than if its future looks grim. Markets want to know what's going to happen next, not what's happened in the past or what's happening now. The stock market crashed in 1929 when it became clear that Congress was likely to enact devastating, protectionist trade legislation. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff, signed into law in June 1930, triggered a horrific trade war that contributed mightily to the Great Depression.