Regular Score Tests of Independence in Multivariate Extreme Values

摘要

The score tests of independence in multivariate extreme values derived by Tawn (Tawn, J.A., "Bivariate extreme value theory: models and estimation," Biometrika 75, 397-415, 1988) and Ledford and Tawn (Ledford, A.W. and Tawn, J.A., "Statistics for near independence in multivariate extreme values," Biometrika 83, 169-187, 1996) have non-regular properties that arise due to violations of the usual regularity conditions of maximum likelihood. Two distinct types of regularity violation are encountered in each of their likelihood frameworks; independence within the underlying model corresponding to a boundary point of the parameter space and the score function having an infinite second moment. For applications, the second form of regularity violation has the more important consequences, as it results in score statistics with non-standard normalisation and poor rates of convergence. The corresponding tests are difficult to use in practical situations because their asymptotic properties are unrepresentative of their behaviour for the sample sizes typical of applications, and extensive simulations may be needed in order to evaluate adequately their null distribution. Overcoming this difficulty is the primary focus of this paper. We propose a modification to the likelihood based approaches used by Tawn (Tawn, J.A., "Bivariate extreme value theory: models and estimation," Biometrika 75, 397-415, 1988) and Ledford and Tawn (Ledford, A.W. and Tawn, J.A., "Statistics for near independence in multivariate extreme values," Biometrika 83, 169-187, 1996) that provides asymptotically normal score tests of independence with regular normalisation and rapid convergence. The resulting tests are straightforward to implement and are beneficial in practical situations with realistic amounts of data.