Organized crime, money laundering and legal economy: theory and simulations

摘要

This paper proposes a dynamic model to simulate the relationships between the profits of organized crime, money laundering and legal investments. We develop a macro framework in which organized crime can increase its possibilities to invest in the legal sector by resorting to effective but costly money laundering schemes. The model explores the conditions under which the effectiveness of money laundering causes a positive trend in the legal assets owned by the criminal organizations. We use the model to simulate the total amount of legal wealth generated by organized crime through drug trafficking in different world regions, with particular attention to Europe.