Development of hydro-social-economic-environmental sustainability index (HSEESI) in integrated water resources management

摘要

Sustainable development is a grand challenge of the present century, with tremendous direct and indirect implications for a range of social, economic, and environmental factors. This research proposes a water-centric framework for evaluating "relative" sustainability of the status quo in a country via a new "hydro-social-economic-environmental sustainability index" (HSEESI). We test this framework across 35 countries of American continent using national-scale surveyed data for the 2005-2017 periods. HSEESI possesses four dimensions, namely economic, social development, knowledge and technology, and health sanitation and environment, and 12 related indicators for characterizing these dimensions. Based on the developed HSEESI scores, we assess the linkages between water resources and social-economic-environmental systems at the country level, using single and hybrid-artificial intelligence-gene expression programming (GEP) methods. The former method involves all the indicators, while the latter focuses only on the most effective indicators. Further, we aggregate these analyses at three spatial scales, including American continent, North American countries, and South American countries. Our analyses show that both methods lead to approximate similar results, but the latter is preferred for larger scales as it is more cost effective. Overall, results indicate that the status of water resources in North America is relatively sustainable, whereas in South America, it is relatively unsustainable. Importantly, social development, health sanitation, and environmental dimensions, in both North and South American continents, seem to have a relatively unsustainable status, indicating that water resources systems may not have enough capacity to meet the needs of those dimensions. At the country level, our analyses show that water resources systems of Uruguay, Guyana, and Venezuela may face the highest relative unsustainability, across economic, social development, and health sanitation and environment dimensions. The approach and the framework developed in this study can be applied in other regions around the world and with a more detailed representation of intra-country sustainability issues. It can inform managers and policymakers for sustainable planning and developing water resources projects across scales.