Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children: Empirical Comparisons with Epidemiologic Data

摘要

The concept of model validation is evolving in the scientific community. This paper addresses the comparison of observed and predicted estimates as one component of model validation as applied to the integrated exposure uptake biokinetic (IEUBK) model for lead in children. The IEUBK model is an exposure (dose)-response model that uses children's environmental lead exposures to estimate risk of elevated blood lead (typically>10μg/dl) through estimation of lead body burdens in a mass balance framework. We used residence-specific environmental lead measurements from three epidemiologic datasets as inputs for the IEUBK model to predict blood lead levels, and compared these predictions with blood lead levels of children living at these residences.