Labor market impacts from ozone nonattainment status: a regression discontinuity analysis

摘要

The potential economic effects of environmental regulations are often a concern when discussing policy initiatives. This study employs a regression discontinuity (RD) design to test effects of ozone nonattainment status and the accompanying regulations on economic conditions in US counties from 2004 through 2011. Comparing ozone nonattainment counties to similarly polluted attainment counties, the results estimate roughly 24% lower employment in polluting industries in nonattainment areas and a negative though statistically insignificant effect on the number of polluting-industry establishments in nonattainment areas. When using total county employment as the dependent variable, the analysis finds no statistically significant evidence of nonattainment status effects. Overall, the estimated effects in this analysis imply that any economic impacts of nonattainment status are predominantly felt in those industries most directly affected by ozone regulation. This could lead to changes in local industrial composition.