Bounding uncertainties in intrinsic human elimination half-lives and intake of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the North American population

摘要

We examine the balance between intake, intrinsic elimination half-lives and human body burdens measured in biomonitoring for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the North American population using the population-level pharmacokinetic model developed by Ritter et al. (2011). Empirical data are collected from two studies that made total intake estimates for the North American population for the years 2004 and 2005, and eight biomonitoring studies for the years 1992 to 2009. We assume intake of PBDEs increased exponentially to a peak in 2004, and has since exponentially declined. The model is fitted to the empirical PBDE intake and biomonitoring data on PBDE body burden using a least-square optimization method by adjusting the intake in 2004 and 2038, and the intrinsic elimination rate constants, which can be expressed as equivalent half-lives. We fit the model in two types of scenarios using different combinations of PBDE intake estimates and biomonitoring data. Our modeling results indicate that there is an inconsistency between the PBDE intake estimates and the biomonitoring data, and that the inconsistency is likely due to underestimation of population-level intake. More efforts are needed to better characterize intake rates and identify potentially-unrecognized exposure pathways. Additional age-stratified biomonitoring data, and time trends of PBDE intakes would better constrain the model and provide an improved estimation of the intrinsic elimination half-lives.