The dynamic financial distress prediction method of EBW-VSTW-SVM

摘要

Financial distress prediction (FDP) takes important role in corporate financial risk management. Most of former researches in this field tried to construct effective static FDP (SFDP) models that are difficult to be embedded into enterprise information systems, because they are based on horizontal data-sets collected outside the modelling enterprise by defining the financial distress as the absolute conditions such as bankruptcy or insolvency. This paper attempts to propose an approach for dynamic evaluation and prediction of financial distress based on the entropy-based weighting (EBW), the support vector machine (SVM) and an enterprise's vertical sliding time window (VSTW). The dynamic FDP (DFDP) method is named EBW-VSTW-SVM, which keeps updating the FDP model dynamically with time goes on and only needs the historic financial data of the modelling enterprise itself and thus is easier to be embedded into enterprise information systems. The DFDP method of EBW-VSTW-SVM consists of four steps, namely evaluation of vertical relative financial distress (VRFD) based on EBW, construction of training data-set for DFDP modelling according to VSTW, training of DFDP model based on SVM and DFDP for the future time point. We carry out case studies for two listed pharmaceutical companies and experimental analysis for some other companies to simulate the sliding of enterprise vertical time window. The results indicated that the proposed approach was feasible and efficient to help managers improve corporate financial management.