Guarding against deceptive forecasts

摘要

Taking the "outside view" is the best way to guard against over-optimistic or deceptive front-end estimates of costs and benefits of a major project, according to the paper published on 8 November 2012 in the International Journal of Project Management. It is authored by Professor Bent Flyvbjerg from the BT Centre for Major Programme Management at the Said Business School, University of Oxford.The "outside view" involves comparing the project against related past projects."The traditional way to think about a complex project is to focus on the project itself and its details, to bring to bear what one knows about it, paying special attention to its unique or unusual features, trying to predict the events that will influence its future.