Hourly forecasting of global solar radiation based on multiscale decomposition methods: A hybrid approach

摘要

This paper introduces a new approach for the forecasting of solar radiation series at 1 h ahead. We investigated on several techniques of multiscale decomposition of clear sky index K-c data such as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Wavelet Decomposition. From these differents methods, we built 11 decomposition components and 1 residu signal presenting different time scales. We performed classic forecasting models based on linear method (Autoregressive process AR) and a non linear method (Neural Network model). The choice of forecasting method is adaptative on the characteristic of each component. Hence, we proposed a modeling process which is built from a hybrid structure according to the defined flowchart. An analysis of predictive performances for solar forecasting from the different multiscale decompositions and forecast models is presented. From multiscale decomposition, the solar forecast accuracy is significantly improved, particularly using the wavelet decomposition method. Moreover, multistep forecasting with the proposed hybrid method resulted in additional improvement. For example, in terms of RMSE error, the obtained forecasting with the classical NN model is about 25.86%, this error decrease to 16.91% with the EMD-Hybrid Model, 14.06% with the EEMD-Hybid model and to 7.86% with the WD-Hybrid Model. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.