Modeling Wind Speed and Time-varying Turbulence in Geographically Dispersed Wind Energy Markets in China

摘要

This study extends the work of Ewing, Kruse, and Thompson (2008), in the simultaneous modeling of mean wind speed and its volatility in geographically dispersed wind energy markets in the U.S. to the case of China. An ARIMA-GARCH-M model is estimated using average daily wind speed data from January 14, 2003 to September 10, 2006 for nine wind energy markets in China. Similar to Ewing, Kruse, and Thompson (2008), the results indicate that regardless of location, wind speed exhibits time-varying turbulence. However, with the exception of one location, the results do not yield support for the proposition that wind turbulence has a statistically significant impact on mean wind speed.