Energy conservation and emission reduction path selection in China: A simulation based on Bi-Level multi-objective optimization model

摘要

Aiming at the bi-level multi-objective characteristic of the energy-environment-economy(3E) system of China, this paper constructed a bi-level multi-objective optimization model. Six scenarios were simulated in preference to energy saving, emission reduction and economic development. And energy consumption, carbon emission and economic development were analyzed in different scenarios during the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020). The following results were obtained: during the 13th five-year plan, the national targets of energy consumption, carbon emission and economic development are easily achievable. However, it is hard for most regions to achieve their energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) targets when accomplishing their own economic targets. In other words, regional economic targets mismatch their ECER targets. The effects of ECER are not ideal in the energy saving scenario and the carbon emission reduction scenario, while they are relatively satisfactory in the economic development scenario. The win-win" situation between upper-level and lower-level is realizable in the economic development scenario, i.e., high-quality economic development may germinate good effects on ECER.