TRIPARTITE DYNAMIC COMPETITION AND PREDICTION ANALYSIS: COAL, OIL AND GAS, AND CLEAN ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN CHINA

摘要

Coal, oil and gas, and clean energy consumptions were considered to be three competitive populations in a closed system and their dynamic competitive relationships were investigated using a Lotka-Volterra model. The parameters of this model were identified through non-linear least squares estimation method; on this basis, this study analysed the equilibrium of the system and predicted its future development trend. Results show that both coal, and oil and gas, consumptions positively promoted clean energy consumption, while oil and gas exerted a greater influence than coal; moreover, clean energy consumption helps to promote oil and gas consumption, and this phenomenon forms competition for coal consumption. The energy consumption system of China is unstable and her energy supply structure still needs further adjustment in the short-term. Although future energy consumption is still dominated by coal, its market share presents a downward trend, and clean energy is expected to become more popular.