Analysis of market penetration scenarios of clean coal technologies in China using the LLNL China Energy Model

摘要

This paper presents the results of an analysis of the market penetration of Clean Coal Technologies in the electric utility market in China. The analysis is based on a model of the Chinese energy system developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Under this model, the market penetration of a technology depends on the relative prices of all technologies in a market. The model assumes that for each technology there is a distribution of effective prices to the consumers in the market place. The prices for each technology computed in the model are assumed to be the means of these distributions: sometime the effective price is greater than this and sometimes it is less. Thus even a relatively expensive technology may cost less than its competitors in a fraction of the transactions. Using several scenarios about the possible dispersion of prices, we estimate the market share of CCTs over the next 50 years. We find that some CCTs penetrate under all scenarios, but the more expensive ones only show significant penetration when larger values of price dispersion are assumed. Generally the penetration of the CCTs is 15% or less of the market by 2020. However, advanced pulverized coal does exceed 15% in some cases.