Research on the dynamic relationship of economy, energy consumption and urbanization in China based on VECM

摘要

By analyzing the statistics of the total energy consumption, GDP and the level of urbanization in China during the period of 1985 to 2011, VECM model is established between the three. With the model the article studies the empirical analysis of the long-term co-integration relationship and short-term dynamic relationship between the three. The results demonstrate that long-term co-integration relationship of the three exists. Also the analysis of total energy consumption, GDP and the level of urbanization of China show that the increase of urbanization level will improve the development of GDP and the total energy consumption in a long term. Besides, it is found that a relatively steady trend exists between the three through variance analysis in a short term. Based on the results of empirical analysis, relevant political suggestions are provided in order to realize the goal of economy development, energy consumption and urbanization level for China.