Benefits of low carbon development in a developing country: Case of Nepal

摘要

This paper analyzes the direct and indirect benefits of reducing CO_2 emission during 2005 to 2100 in the case of Nepal, a low income developing country rich in hydropower resource, it discusses the effects on energy supply mix, local pollutant emissions, energy security and energy system costs of CO_2 emission reduction targets in the country by using an energy system model based on the MARKAL framework. The study considers three cases of CO_2 emission reduction targets and analyzes their benefits during the study period as compared to the reference scenario. The first two cases consist of a 20% cutback (Scenario ERT20) and 40% cutback (Scenario ERT40) (of CO_2 emission in the reference scenario). The third case considers a 40% cutback of CO_2 emission with the share of electric mass transport (EMT) in the land transport service demand increased to 30% (as compared to 20% in the reference scenario). The study shows that an implementation of Scenario ERT40 would increase the cumulative electricity generation (mainly from hydropower) by 16.5% (794 TWh), reduce the cumulative consumption of imported fuels by 42% (24,400 Pj) and increase the total energy system cost by 1.6% during 2005 to 2100 as compared to the reference scenario. Besides, there wouid be a reduction in the emission of Socai pollutants and generation of additional employment in the country. With the share of EMT increased to 30%, there would be a further reduction in local pollutant emissions, an improvement in energy security and a decrease in the energy system cost compared to that in Scenario ERT40.