Increasing returns to scale in energy-intensive sectors and its implications on climate change modeling

摘要

Increasing returns to scale (IRS) phenomena are widely present in economies, and integrated assessment models (IAMs) for climate change generally assume constant returns to scale (CRS). This paper studies the connection between IRS in energy-intensive sectors and the regions' attitude towards climate change. In a model of detrimental (negative) externality, we proved that if some agents' activities related to externality generation exhibit IRS, their optimal target in the efficient externality provision can be very close to their inefficient non-cooperative Coumot-Nash equilibrium position. The numerical simulations in this paper confirm the analytical conclusion. The analytical results point out the potential biases of IAMs under the CRS assumption and provide a better explanation of difficulties in international climate negotiations. Finally, the paper offers some policy suggestions on climate negotiation in the presence of IRS. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.