The analytical Monte Carlo method for approximating the distribution of a plant's electrical generation

摘要

A method for approximating the distribution of a plant's generation (and, therefore, of its fuel burn) as a function of both uncertainty in load forecasts and the plant's performance. The method is applicable to all-thermal systems. The moments of the distribution of the plant's generation are estimated by combining the statistical method of the generation of system moments with probabilistic production costing in a way that analytically models a Monte Carlo process. The resulting algorithm, referred to as the analytical Monte Carlo method, is evaluated by comparing its estimates of the moments of each plant's generation with that obtained using a Monte Carlo model. Results indicate that the method yields practical estimates for evaluating uncertainty that can be used in long-term studies.